Thursday, November 30, 2006

Sorry bulls, today wasn't that hopeful, it's bear time.

Yes, the morning dip was bought today (11/30/06) but look at the 5 min chart and you'll see that all the strong volume was down.

I think the party is still stalled for the bulls... too early to call a full on party pooper down draft, but that's my bias for now. Bear time.

Monday, November 27, 2006

And the bears growled, Grrrrrrrrrrrrr....

Positively negative day for the bulls... unless they're looking for a bit of a sanity check. Even though this may only be a small basing correction on the longer term up trend, it's about damn time! Let's hope it's only a short pull back and basing. Either way I expect it'll break a lot of hearts/accounts through a myriad of hard fought battles.

That being said... most of the indicators I look at ($NAHD weekly, $NAAD weekly, $NASI weekly, $NDXA200 weekly, among them) are looking rather top heavy. I'd be a very cautious bull if I was at all... and that's a moment to moment call right now. Looking at all the indicators listed above my bias would be bearish, but not right away. Usually there is a fair amount of whip saw around this time of a cycle.

Sunday, November 12, 2006

Everyone is still afraid of being a bear.

Well... let's see... I was wrong about the bears winning last week... and this week may or may not be the week the bears turn the tide. As the saying goes: "The market can stary irrational longer than you can stay 'right' and solvent.

I'm still in in short position in BSC, but watching it closely.

I'm seeing more long opportunities going into this week, but I'll be wary of being too aggressive.

Saturday, November 04, 2006

Everyone's afraid to be a bear

The market has been consolidating lately and everyone is afraid to be a bear right now, and who can blame them with the way the market has slapped bears on the paw every time they venture out of the den over the last 3 months.

I don't know what's going to happen in the market tomorrow, next week, or next year... but I do know that one of these days/weeks/years the bears will win one of these stand off's... and why not now? Hmmm let's see... because of performance anxiety of those who have been waiting with their money on the sideline? Now they're going to jump in and drive the market further up with fresh capital... or will they be the suckers buying at the top, only to be exasperated by the sudden market push up to new highs after they decide to cut their losses and sell.

Dr. Joe is a rather entertaining chartist that I check out from time to time. My favorite chart that he posts is the weekly $NASI, which is a summation index of the NASDAQ stocks reaching new highs. Here's his view: (click on the image to enlarge)

The way I'm looking at this is that we're due for the bears to win a round... maybe not a big win... maybe just an interim win before a big push up to new highs... but I don't think the folks hoping for an immediate big push up in the market are going to be rewarded this week.

There are several other technical indicators of this, but really the most obvious signal of all to me is that everyone is afraid to be a bear right now.

Thus here are some stocks on my watch list with an eye towards shorting (in addition to the short position I'm holding in BSC from last week:


Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Swingin baby

I'm swing trading more these days... busy schedule demands that I do less day trading right now.

So, I started out the week with a bearish bias towards the markets as a whole and spent some time this weekend looking for good candidates. I settled on a nice list of about 10 and then on Monday morning entered three short trades as swing trade positions: AAPL, ERIC, BSC.

Then the market appeared stronger than I thought it would be and so I exited AAPL and ERIC before they hit my stops (they still actually haven't hit my stops as of this blog entry). I hung on to BSC because it looked to at least be running into more resistance to the up side.

Now two days later, I'm wishing I had let my positions ride with my stops in place... because 1) I'd still be in the positions and 2) Two of the positions would be currently profitable and the third (ERIC) looks like it may break down after all.

Ah well, at least I hung on to one.

One more nice bit of news... Stocktickr has added a position scale in feature to their service.

Happy trading.

Thursday, October 26, 2006

My best trade of the last 3 weeks.

Ok... I definately fall into the camp that feels we have a lot to learn from looking at failed trades, but every now and then it's nice to have a look at the ones that go perfectly too.

I wish every trade looked like this one:
(click on the image to enlarge)

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Not gone... just taking a break

In addition to this being an FOMC announcement week... I just needed a break... so I'm taking it.

I'll be back next week.